Saturday, July 22, 2017

San Fran's Sabine women

The percentages of San Franciscan adults who favor the place continuing to be a sanctuary city for illegal aliens, by sex and by race (n = 500):


The SurveyUSA poll doesn't provide cross tabs for both race and sex (or data on marriage at all), but given that white marriage rates are higher than non-white marriage rates are and that both married men and especially married women are more restrictionist than are their unmarried counterparts, it's highly likely that single white women are the most emphatic supporters of San Francisco's sanctuary city policy.

Alternative post title: Single White Women Are A Civilizational-Scale Shit Test, part XLI.

Parenthetically, sometimes gangrenous limbs need to be amputated if the body (politic) is to survive. Calexit, don't die on us.

Friday, July 21, 2017

That all these troubles weighing down on you may rise

The Derb cringes in response to Trump's ebullient praise for China's president:
Did you have to lay it on so thick, Mr. President? Couldn't we get the results we want — and perhaps a little more respect, by keeping Xi Jinping and his leg-breakers at a polite distance?

Xi Jinping "loves China"? He "wants to do what's right for China"? Liu Xiaobo loved China, too. He also wanted to do what's right for China; and his notion of what's right is a lot, a lot, closer to our own nation's ideals than is Marxism-Leninism-Mao Tse-tung Thought.
China can be China as far as I'm concerned. There's no country more advantageous for the US to be in the relative good graces of, and if it takes an extra application of verbal lather to get there, so be it.

I certainly prefer effusive praise of the Chinese president over the same for a nation-wrecking, middle American-killing, war-mongering, bosom-buddy of the late Ted Kennedy, one John McCain.

Here's Trump's blase reaction to the news that McCain has glioblastoma:


Compare that to Obama's mellifluous response:


Obama's words are probably uncharacteristically sincere here. In 2008, McCain folded while holding a flush. He is the archetypal cuckservative Republican--always losing, but always losing with dignity!

Parenthetically, I characterize Trump's response as blase on account of that seeming to be the consensus. My first reaction was that it was one hell of a troll--the prognosis for McCain's aggressive brain cancer is poor. It's highly improbable he will "get well soon". He'll likely die soon, within the next couple of years.

I differ with some of our compatriots on the Alt Right in that I don't want McCain to suffer. As someone of proud English ancestry, I can genuinely assert that's "not who we are".

I do, however, want him to die, or at any rate become incapable of serving for another day in congress. For far too long he has acted as pressure relief valve on the right on account of the (R) next to his name. The ultimate quisling when it comes to the National Question, he partnered with the aforementioned Kennedy (who died of the same brain cancer) in the senate in attempt to push a bipartisan immigration amnesty on the country in 2005. He's sent thousands of American soldiers to early graves fighting ruinously expensive, pointless and stupid wars in tribalistic third-world hellholes.

Ask me to choose between decorum and my children's future and I'll pick, without hesitation, the latter every single time.

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

Net personal wealth by generation

Twice since the turn of the century, in 2006 and 2014, the GSS has asked respondents about personal net wealth (assets minus debt). The following graph shows wealth distributions by generational cohorts in roughly 2010, understanding that the "great recession" occurred in between the two survey years (n = 2,150):


Rather than confidently divining disaster in this, as it's beyond my understanding to say with certainty what, if anything, it presages, allow me to share a few reactions.

There aren't that many geriatrics living off of Social Security benefits. Fifteen percent of Silents are millionaires. The figure is half that among Boomers, less than one-third that half among Xers, and then there's Mark Zuckerberg and his waifu.

Half of millennials aren't worth anything.

Big deal. A look at the general situation of boomers in the mid-seventies, comparable to the life stage of millennials here, wouldn't have looked any better. In fact, it would've been worse! That's what a Boomer will tell you, anyway.

I grew up in a comfortably middle class household. My siblings and I were regaled every Christmas with the story of how my parents married after college with nothing but my dad's old pickup and $500 to their name, the entirety of which was subsequently spent on a month-long road trip through the central, mountain, and pacific time zones.

The story doesn't sound that quaint, at least through the point of the great American honeymoon, but when it was over they both were spoiled for choice when it came to finding work, work that easily accommodated home ownership and family formation. Born smack dab in the middle of the Boomer cohort, they got in on the ground floor of the dual income household, before large scale entry of women into the workforce put severe downward pressure on wages and employment.

Told today, we'd expect to hear that upon returning from the extended road trip, the new couple moved in with one of their parents, with part-time jobs as baristas working off their five-figure student loan debts.

Millennials put a premium on experiences over material goods (or having a house or kids or a career). People don't spend five decades working for the same company, steadily increasing their earnings through tenure before comfortably retiring on a company pension, anymore. Peak labor force participation is in the rear view mirror. So is Peak Marriage.

It's easy to assume that this will not end well. It may not.

GSS variables used: WEALTH, COHORT(1925-1945)(1946-1964)(1965-1976)(1977-1995)

Thursday, July 13, 2017

Forbid face time for fake news

Agnostic suggests breaking the major media companies up:
Destroying the media enemy requires a cold hard look at how they operate, what their source of power is, and what our power is that can counteract that. This will downplay the importance of launching another meme war against CNN (or MSNBC or whoever), and instead shift the focus toward the need to break up the monopolies that control the media.
If it can be done then by all means do so.

A less herculean task, and one that would prove more popular in the nearer-term, is for Trump and his team to simply bar them from press conferences--including Sean Spicer's daily briefings--and grant members of select organizations no more access than the White House allows private citizens visiting the capital as tourists. Make it administration policy not to grant interviews or otherwise talk to anyone from any of those on the figurative proscription list.

If you're part of a fake news outlet, you get no access, period. If you misrepresent yourself in an attempt to get information, you'll be subject to prosecution for fraud, trespassing, etc. If you get in an official's face in public, you'll be charged with assault.

Media figures are not high priests. They're the middle men of information conveyance in a world that increasingly has no need for middle men conveying information. Communications now come from the whole seller directly to the consumer.

The utter collapse in confidence in the major media--both print and television--is staggering. The following graphs show the percentages of people who answered that they have "a great deal of confidence" and "hardly any confidence at all" in each media platform, by year. The third possible response, "only some confidence", is not shown, but is the difference between 100 and the other two percentages shown in any given year:



We are to a point now where a majority of Americans have "hardly any confidence at all" in the press, and most of the balance are themselves wary. Sentiment towards TV isn't far behind.

The latest year we have data for is 2016. Response gathering was scattered throughout that year. Some respondents were answering prior to the Iowa caucuses occurring. Rest assured the figures will be markedly worse still when the 2018 iteration of the survey is released.

Shutting out fake news organizations won't create any significant blow back. Nobody watches these cable news shows. The few who do are geriatric white leftists. The average CNN viewer is in his sixties and getting older by the day. The #resistance that rallies to the defense of the hated and distrusted media will comprise a small contingent of the Coalition of the Fringes, a contingent the rest of the coalition is most eager to push out anyway.

Even the thoroughly converged corporate world is moving away. There are several podcasts I've listened to for years that have recently begun taking on ads that are indistinguishable from the ones that run during NFL games. The advertising used to only be for niche goods and services. Now there are ads for cars on The Art of Manliness and The History of Byzantium.

Trump should grab some easy populism points by helping send the fake news organizations to their graves.

GSS variables used: CONTV(1)(3), CONPRESS(1)(3), YEAR

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Like oil and water despite half a century of being forced to share a container

In 2006, the GSS asked respondents about the racial proportions "among all acquaintances" of theirs. The following percentages, by selected demographic characteristics, who answered either "mostly a different race than you" or "almost all a different race than you":


Fresher data is always preferable, but it's not as though this was queried during the civil rights ructions of the sixties. It was gathered after nearly five decades of trying to force diversity onto the public through relentless legal, cultural, and moral coercion.

How improbable these results appear given a null hypothesis that people assort randomly depends on how exactly we define "all acquaintances". Is it Dunbar's number? Facebook friends?

The chance that most of the acquaintances of a black man who has just three of them are non-black is 95%. That is, if acquaintances were made randomly then 19-in-20 black men would report two or three of his total acquaintances being non-black in this absurdly pro-Diversity! assumption of what "among all acquaintances" means. The reported result is one-tenth of that.

Scale it up to 30 acquaintances or 300 acquaintances and the chances rapidly approach zero. In other words, no matter how we look at it these results are wildly divergent from what we'd expect if segregation wasn't an overwhelmingly strong natural impulse for people of all racial backgrounds. Differences in socioeconomic status, education, and the like come nowhere close to explaining it. Middle and upper class blacks report even higher levels of self-segregation than lower and working class blacks do!

To say the American experiment has mostly worked and that in 21st century America the idea that inherent preferences to be around members of one's own race is a relic of the past is absurd.

This is blatantly obvious not just to those who Notice but to nearly everyone. The NYT's "mapping segregation" is one of the most handy graphical representations of as much.

Liberal whites who live in urban areas that are majority-non-white don't acquaint much with non-whites.

A more direct way of putting it is that liberal whites seek out other whites in their own personal lives, their paeans to Diversity! notwithstanding. Only 25% of white liberals choose "about evenly split", so even when we give them this ideologically comfortable weasel option, the overwhelming majority (73%) still admit they acquaint mostly or almost exclusively with whites.

If Diversity! was a self-evident good, there would be no need to coerce and browbeat people into it. Even it's most vociferous proponents refuse to practice what they preach. We're not in the realm of ancient virtue here, the kind that was practiced because it improved one's existence in there here and now. We're in the realm of supernatural grace, of hair shirts and self-flagellation, of enduring self-abnegating suffering now for the promise of paradise in the future.

Our job is to call those who promote Diversity! out on their hypocrisy. It needs to be done publicly and relentlessly whenever the opportunity presents itself.

GSS variables used: ACQMYRAC, RACECEN1(1)(2)(4-10), HISPANIC(1)(2-50), POLVIEWS(1-2)(3-5)(6-7), RELIG(3)

++Addition++Z-Man, who is trying his hand at podcasting--and doing an excellent job of it thus far--weighs in.